Mikhail Kasianov: Everything would be a "bluff", and the president

Mikhail Kasianov: Everything would be a “bluff”, and the president


Mikhail Kasianov, the former prime minister of Russia, spoke about the political regime led by Vladimir Putin and his threats to use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine. According to his words, everything would be a “bluff”, and the Russian president will be removed from the leadership of the state in a maximum of two years.

The political regime led by Vladimir Putin will collapse in two years

Thus, Mikhail Kasianov was the Prime Minister of Russia between 2000 and 2004, after which he switched to the side of the opposition, thus becoming a critic of Vladimir Putin. This year, he fled Russia to an unknown location.

Recently, however, he spoke about the decree signed by the Russian president, which aims at the partial mobilization of Russian reservists, about his threats related to the use of nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine, and about the referendums for the annexation of the Ukrainian territories conquered by the Russian army to Russia.

He has “high doubts” that the Russian military will use nuclear weapons in the neighboring country. “As far as the mobilization is concerned, it is not a bluff. As for the potential use of nuclear weapons, I think it’s a bluff,” Mihail Kasianov said recently.

In his opinion, “He wants right now to blackmail the Western leaders, the entire Western society. He wants to recognize, through these referendums, the occupied parts of Ukraine as Russian territory and then tell Western leaders. Putin is ready to use nuclear weapons to defend sovereign Russian territory. But I very much doubt that Mr. Putin will use nuclear weapons because he realizes that for Western leaders it is the same, regardless of whether there is annexation and recognition, the nature of the war would not change,” explained Mikhail Kasianov, referring to the referendums for annexing the territories conquered by the Russian army to Russia.

In addition, Mikhail Kasianov is firmly convinced that the military potential of the Ukrainian army will gradually increase, which will cause the loss of the Russian army and, automatically, the collapse of the political regime led by Vladimir Putin. According to his words, when this happens, Vladimir Putin will flee Russia to hide from the people’s anger.

Thus, “The military potential of the Ukrainian army will increase and it will have a decisive advantage on the battlefield that will lead to a change in the situation and, as I believe, to the collapse of the Putin regime. I think that Putin could somehow nominate some kind of successor, but this successor will not be an actual leader of the country, but will be for a certain period of time, which of course would lead to the collapse of the regime. Then, inevitably, there will be democratic elections, but it will take a while, it will not be tomorrow, not in six months, but in two years. During this period, Putin goes somewhere, he goes, I don’t know, to the resort of Lake Baikal or to China,” said the former Russian prime minister, in an interview for Channel 4.

Vladimir Putin risks losing the support of the majority in Russia

In this context, for her part, Tatiana Stanovaia, an independent political specialist who follows the decision-making process of the Government in Moscow, described Vladimir Putin’s statements about the referendums for the annexation of the Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian army to Russia as a pretext to raise the stakes.

Thus, “This is a Russian ultimatum to Ukraine and the West: Ukraine must give up or there will be a nuclear war. For Putin, the annexation would legitimize the right to resort to nuclear threats to protect the territory of Russia”, stated Tatiana Stanovaia.

Furthermore, Kirill Rogov, an independent political analyst, described the order to partially mobilize Russian reservists as an “explosive mixture of insanity, incompetence and desperation”. According to his words, Vladimir Putin risks losing the support of the majority.

So, “Sacrifice is needed now, and it’s a violation of the unwritten agreements of the past, which would trigger more repression,” said Alexander Baunov, an expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Alexander Baunov stated that Vladimir Putin’s decision to annex the Ukrainian regions controlled by the Russian army to Russia is a warning. “You dared to fight with us in Ukraine, now try to fight with us in Russia, or more precisely, with what we call that,” added Alexander Baunov.