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Putin had received a simulation of the impact of sanctions in case of


Photo: Russia Business Today

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One month before Russia attacked Ukraine, the Central Bank and state-owned banks provided Putin with an assessment of the consequences of harsh sanctions for the escalating situation around the neighboring country, dcnews.ro was quoted as saying by Frank Media. An additional proof that, at a high level, it was known what was going to happen. Maybe they didn’t know the date, maybe they weren’t up to date with the details of the invasion, but they were aware of the existence of such a plan.

In an attempt to stop such madness, reports were drafted and filed on the Kremlin leader’s table by three more banking institutions, now under Western sanctions: the Central Bank, Sberbank and VTB. All figures were subsequently combined and a conclusion was probably drawn.

But according to some sources, the bankers considered at the time that the harshest scenario was the recognition of the two separatist republics in Donbass. It did not go further, it was not said that, in fact, the occupation of Ukraine is being considered. Certainly, the estimates and evaluations would have been completely different. In this scenario, Russia’s GDP is expected to decline by 10% and the national currency to depreciate by 150-200 rubles for the dollar and the euro, respectively. In any case, no one expected sanctions against the regulator, depriving it of the ability to support the collapsed ruble.

An estimate of the financial needs to support the Russian economy as a whole was also advanced: around 5-6 trillion rubles.

“The recapitalization figure is an estimate of assets locked abroad, adjusted for the expected change in the exchange rate. But, in addition to that, there will be credit losses, which are impossible to predict “, said for Frank Media one of the publication’s interlocutors.

According to Frank Media, the management of those banks insisted on presenting their assessments. It was important for the bankers to show the authorities what the economic consequences will be, the same sources explained. According to them, at that time,

“None of the participants could even imagine how far they could go, what the consequences of these consequences would be. No, no one thought that things would get out of hand, “said one source.

Perhaps that is why they did not go further with their warnings, contenting themselves with pointing out an increase in the unemployment rate by 10-12% and a considerable slowdown in the country’s development due to the technological embargo.