Report: Romania cannot hope too soon, realistically,

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Accession to the euro zone is a priority for Romania and meets consensus in the political class, but the large deficits and the fragility of the external balance represent major obstacles to entering the MCS2 in the immediate perspective and then the actual accession, reveals the Convergence Analysis Report “Romania – Euro zone MONITOR” no. 10/2022, coordinated by the academician Daniel Dăianu and quoted by Agerpres.

The authors of the paper argue that, in the absence of sustainable fiscal consolidation. it is not realistic to hope for a quick accession.

They briefly present the conclusions presented by the European Central Bank and the European Commission in the convergence reports published on June 1, which assess the progress made by Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Sweden – the seven member states outside the euro area that legally committed to adopt the euro currency:

only Croatia and Sweden meet the price stability criterion; all member states meet the public finance criterion, except Romania, which is the only member state in Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP); Bulgaria and Croatia meet the exchange rate criterion; Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic and Sweden meet the long-term interest rate criterion; Croatia meets the four nominal convergence criteria and its legislation is fully compatible with the requirements of the TFEU.

According to the paper, the convergence report of Croatia was discussed in the Economic and Financial Committee of the EU and in the Ecofin Council, and the proposal for a Council decision and a Council regulation regarding the introduction of the euro in Croatia, on January 1, 2023, was adopted.

“While the authorities in Bulgaria reiterate the objective of joining the euro zone in 2024, in other member states outside the euro zone – Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary – the path towards the single European currency does not seem to be a priority in the current situation, the attention being strongly focused on the management of the energy crisis and the economic-social impact of the war in Ukraine, as well as on efforts to curb inflation and avoid a strong recession”, the authors emphasize.