The IMF estimates losses of $ 13.8 billion by

The IMF estimates losses of $ 13.8 billion by

The International Monetary Fund expects global economic growth to decline from previous forecasts, mainly due to the weak prospects of the United States and China.

The IMF has worsened its forecasts for the world economy. Losses are estimated at $ 13.8 billion by 2024

This year, the world economy is expected to advance 4.4%, compared to a 4.9% expansion forecast in October due to weaker US and Chinese outlooks, and persistent inflation, according to the World Economic Outlook report. On Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported on Bloomberg and Reuters, according to Agerpres.

US and China, declining growth forecasts

For 2023, global GDP is expected to grow by 3.8%, an improvement of 0.2 percentage points from the previous forecast, but the cumulative growth for 2022 and 2023 will still be 0.3 percentage points lower than previously estimated. IMF forecasts show that the world economy has grown by 5.9% in 2021, the highest level in four decades, after a 3.1% decline in 2020.

In 2022, the US, the world’s largest economy, is expected to grow by 4% this year, compared to a previously forecast 5.2%, amid the withdrawal of stimulus measures by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and supply chain disruptions. Growth will slow to 2.6% in 2023, the IMF estimates.

For its part, China, the world’s second-largest economy, is up 4.8% from a previously forecast 5.6% due to the difficulties caused by the pandemic and real estate problems. The Chinese economy is expected to expand by 5.2% in 2023.

An improved forecast for India

In the context of IMF estimates, the data have worsened the forecast for the euro area, which is expected to advance by 3.9% this year, compared to a level of 4.3% previously forecast, and in 2023 growth will slow to 2.5 %.

Thus, India will have the fastest growth rate among the major economies, of 9%, compared to the previous forecast of 8.5%, following the improvement of lending.

In his vision, “The last two years have reaffirmed that this crisis and the ongoing recovery are unique. Authorities need to monitor economic data closely, prepare for emergency measures, and be prepared to communicate and implement policy changes in the near future, “said Gita Gopinath, who became the second official of the IMF this month. after three years as chief economist.

$ 13.8 billion in pandemic losses

For this year, although the IMF warns that the Omicron variant affects the evolution of the economy in the first quarter of 2022, the negative impact is expected to attenuate from the second quarter, if the number of infections decreases globally and no severe restrictions are adopted.

In the supply chain disruptions, inflation has risen more than expected by the IMF, and in advanced economies the annual inflation rate will reach an average of 3.9%, compared to the previous estimate of 2.3%, and 5.9%. % in emerging and developing countries.

And the faster pace of rising cost of living will gradually slow to the end of the year, according to the IMF, assuming that price expectations remain firmly anchored, following a reduction in supply chain problems and rising interest rates.

The decisions of advanced interest-saving economies could create risks to financial stability and could affect capital flows in emerging and developing states, fiscal and foreign exchange positions, following rising debt, the IMF warns.

Therefore, the pandemic would result in cumulative economic losses of $ 13.8 trillion by 2024, compared to the previous forecast of $ 12.5 trillion, Gopinath predicted.