The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters a critical phase both in

The Russian invasion of Ukraine enters a critical phase both in

The war in Ukraine seems to be entering a new phase. Strikes on the coastal zone controlled by Ukraine are intensifying and everything points to preparations for a major Russian offensive aimed at blocking Kiev’s access to the sea.

Will the war in Ukraine spread to Transnistria?

A first question that arises, mainly, is to what extent the support of the West towards Kyiv will intensify, with the increase of supply convoys that move mainly through Poland and Romania, giving the fight for the control of the littoral zone not only an essential character, but also a symbolic one, conveys in an opinion Efimerida ton Syntakton.

The second question is rhetorical, because in the event of a widespread Russian attack it goes without saying that Turkey’s agreement with Russia and Ukraine to export grain to international destinations cannot be implemented.

The third question concerns the propagation of the conflict, given the declared intention of the Russian side to annex Transnistria, separated from Moldova in 1990, as soon as its forces reach the border of the separatist region.

Romania and Poland could be drawn into this conflict

In this context, there are undoubtedly two big questions: What will Moldova do? She will ask for the help of Romania, the country of the same race and the same language as her, which is a member of both the EU and NATO. How will Brussels react to the territorial amputation of a country that recently received, together with Ukraine, the status of a candidate country for accession?

All of these are considered possible developments and collateral effects of an armed conflict that still has a long way to go before disappearing from the forefront of the news, even if the EU’s priority is from now on the difficulties and pressure that the Old Continent will face next winter, the heaviest since the end of World War II in 1945.

In addition, it is not only Romania that could be drawn into this conflict, because the western part of Ukraine around the city of Lviv also belonged to Poland in the period 1918-1939 and is considered a lost homeland for Polish revisionism.

In conclusion, more than five months after Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine, the slow pace of operations in the Donbass region has conveyed to European viewers an apparent manageable normality, an illusion that could end abruptly on the shores of Odessa, whose image is famous throughout the world thanks to Eisenstein’s “Potemkin Cruiser”.