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War affects post-pandemic growth.


French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire said his country would try to get a clearer picture of the effects of the invasion of Ukraine before reviewing its growth forecasts, according to Bloomberg.

“Of course we will revise our growth forecasts. We’ll need to review our estimates at the appropriate time. There is now far too much uncertainty to do so in a serious way, “Bruno Le Maire said in an interview with LCI-Le Figaro-RTL on Sunday.

Earlier this month, the Central Bank of France estimated that the war in Ukraine was already affecting the economy. Instead of disclosing its traditional forecasts, the Central Bank of France has taken unprecedented steps to present two possible scenarios due to uncertainty. For its part, the French National Institute of Statistics went even further and simply withdrew its forecasts for the evolution of the economy in the second quarter of this year.

“We are not talking about a collapse in growth, but an adjustment in growth.”

said Bruno Le Maire, adding that the figures put forward by the Central Bank are generally credible and France’s economic growth is solid.

The impact of the war on the economy, problems in the supply of raw materials, rising oil and gas prices are among the unknowns mentioned by the Minister of Finance, along with high inflation.

However, Bruno Le Maire rejected the idea that inflation is a long-term threat, saying that prices will start to stabilize in a few months.

“At the end of this crisis, of this energy shock, I hope that in a few months we will have a more moderate level of inflation. I don’t think we are in an inflationary spiral, in which inflation becomes high from one month to the next and from one year to the next “, said Bruno Le Maire.

According to him, as supply chain disruptions are reduced and alternatives to Russian natural gas are found, price increases will return to a more reasonable level somewhere in 2023.