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War with Russia and China? Ukraine in NATO? Henry Kissinger,


NATO made the mistake of signaling to Ukraine that it might eventually join the Alliance, but after the Russian invasion, the situation changed, claims former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in 99-year-old, who previously described three likely scenarios for the end of the war in Ukraine.

According to him, for the sake of stability in the region, Ukraine would be suitable for the buffer role between Russia and the West.

“I was in favor of full independence for Ukraine, but I thought its best role would be something like Finland,” Kissinger said.

However, in his view, the dice have been cast. After Russia’s behavior in Ukraine, “I now believe that, one way or another, formally or not, Ukraine should be treated as a member of NATO after the war.”

Still, he envisions a deal that preserves Russia’s gains after its initial 2014 invasion, when it seized Crimea and part of the Donbas, though he has no answer to the question of how such a settlement would be possible since the accord settlement of the conflict eight years ago has failed.

Commenting on Kisinger’s interview, the former head of Ukrainian diplomacy, Pavlo Klimkin, noted that there will be no more gray areas. “The great master of geopolitics believes that the bets are made. And I. There will be no more gray areas,” notes Klimkin on Twitter.

Kissinger never says anything for nothing. His words that they “rolled the dice” and that Ukraine should be perceived formally or informally as part of NATO are worth a lot. The grand master of geopolitics believes the bets are made.

“We are on the brink of war with Russia and China”

The former head of US diplomacy sees today’s world as close to a dangerous imbalance. “We’re on the brink of war with Russia and China over problems we’ve partly created, with no idea how it’s going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to,” he says. Could the US manage the two adversaries by triangulating with each other, as in the Nixon years? He does not offer a simple recipe. “You can’t just say now that we’re going to split them up and turn them against each other. All you can do is not escalate tensions and create options, and for that you have to have a purpose.”

Three scenarios for Ukraine

At the beginning of July, former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger came out with 3 possible scenarios in which the war in Ukraine could end:

1. Ukraine loses 20% of its territory

“If Russia stays where it is now, Ukraine loses 20 percent of its territory and most of the Donbass, mainly an industrial and agricultural area, and a strip of land along the Black Sea,” Kissinger says.

3. The reconquest of all Ukrainian territories

“An attempt to drive Russia out of the territory it acquired before this war, including Crimea, and then the question of a war with Russia itself will arise if the war continues,” Kissinger said.

3. The return to the front line on February 24

“Ukraine will return to the territories it had when the war began: the post-2014 battle line. It will be rearmed and closely linked to NATO, even if it will not be part of the alliance,” Kissinger believes.

Aged 99, Henry Kissinger has just published his 19th book, Leadership: Six Studies in World Strategy, an analysis of the vision and historical achievements of an idiosyncratic pantheon of post-war leaders. World War II: Konrad Adenauer, Charles DeGaulle, Richard Nixon, Anwar Sadat, Lee Kuan-Yew and Margaret Thatcher.

Henry Kissinger, former secretary of state and national security adviser, when asked if he knew of any contemporary leader who shared this combination of qualities of the six leaders, replied that:

“Not. I would make one clarification: although De Gaulle had this in him, this vision of himself, on the other hand, none of these men was essentially a tactical man. They mastered the art of tactics, but they had a sense of purpose when they came into office.”

“I think that the current period has a great difficulty in defining a direction. She is very responsive to the emotion of the moment,” Kissinger told The Wall Street Journal.